At the Brisbane Test
The ABC statistician's diary of the Third Test between Australia and India
The short break between the Adelaide and Brisbane Tests motivates me to avoid one flight by electing to forgo a return to my island home in between, and instead travel direct to Brisbane after the Second Test. With India vanquished in three days, I have the opportunity catch up with family in Adelaide, and to re-visit the wonderful art gallery a Travis Head chip-shot from the Oval. If you want to see iconic originals of Nineteenth-Century Tasmanian landscapes, then Adelaide, obviously, is the place to go!
The forecast for the Brisbane Test is a moving feast on my weather app, but with one common factor. That factor is rain, the moving bit being how much. Daily predictions range between five and forty millimetres, and change every day as the Test approaches. As Murphy would expect, the forecasts for the days prior to and post-Test have cloudless skies.
Saturday
With humidity in the high nineties, India win the toss for the third straight Test this summer, consigning Australia to bat first on a “green mamba.” India include the fast-medium Akash Deep for his first game of the series, and I note that given his 10 wickets in his previous five Tests, he has the most of any bowler in Test history whose victims are totally confined to the first four in the batting order. Since Australia’s openers are the only ones to bat today, he doesn’t get an opportunity to expunge his name from this list, as Khawaja and McSweeney play cautiously but safely. The mamba looks to be mildly sedated.
Deep is two balls into his fourth over when the Apocalypse hits. Between 11:50 and 4:15, when play for the day is finally abandoned, the ground is subjected to a downpour of biblical proportions, quantified by the local meteorological office as being 70 mm (40 of them in the first hour), not far short of three inches in the old money.
The lack of cricket gives opportunity for a day-long, wide-ranging conversation about cricket, given we have to hold programme for the duration. One of the topics is invariably over rates; I am able to point out that during the 1980s, the Windies maintained an average of 78.89 balls per hour. In this series, India’s figure is 77.33, Australia’s 75.82.
The conversation then turns, as it so often does, to Glenn McGrath’s batting prowess. As on most other occasions, this is initiated by Glenn himself, who is justifiably proud of his 61, the seventh-highest score made by a number eleven in Test history. I produce a table (minimum 50 Tests) showing he has a career average more than three times that of New Zealand’s Chris Martin. Glenn is highly chuffed.
When play is called off after 60 minutes of play, Australia have scored 0-28. I note that this is the lowest return (in terms of runs) for any day in Australia on which there was at least some play. India’s 2-38 in a shortened day at the SCG in 1947 is relegated to second place.
With only 13.2 overs bowled in the day, the 30,145 spectators who turned up are entitled to a full refund of their entry fee, since the threshold of fifteen overs hasn’t been reached. Given that fifteen should have been bowled in the time allowed, this is an unexpected and costly consequence of the slow over rates that prevail at the moment. Costly to the insurance company, that is, although one might expect their premiums to rise as a consequence.
Brisbane traditionally has been allocated the first Test of Australian summers, a gift granted to Perth in more recent years. The rainfall graph shows why Brisbane is keen to claim it back:
Sunday
India’s bowlers come out with more venom on the second day, and start working their way through Australia’s upper order. McSweeney and Smith both edge involuntary fours early on, but after two-and half hours, only two deliberately-struck boundaries have been made, both from the blade of Travis Head.
McSweeney perishes early, but Smith hangs on, and finally strikes a magnificent straight drive: his first intentional four of the series, after 163 balls. His claim that he is not out of form, just out of runs, is hard to sustain to this point.
Travis Head seems to be playing on a different planet to his colleagues. With Smith a willing spectator, he reaches 50 off 71 balls, 100 off 115 balls, and 150 off 157 balls. He adds 241 with Smith, Australia’s first double-century partnership since the same pair added 285 at the Oval against the same opposition last year, and only the second such stand in nearly two years, such is the struggle by Australia recently to make big runs. In his last three Test innings, Head has made 381 runs off 402 balls, figures that would be sensational in ODIs.
Head also rids himself of a local curse during this innings. His last six innings at the ’Gabba now read: 152 92 0 0 0 152. He also lies in third place on the list of those to have scored two identical scores at the same venue, behind Herbert Sutliffe (161) and David Gower (157), both at The Oval.
Smith shows strength of character by surviving to reach his own century, with 24 sub-100 innings in between this one and his last (Lord’s 2023). This takes him clear of Steve Waugh and Kane Williamson, and onto 33 career centuries, level with Alistair Cook. But over the Tasman, Kane is lurking on 50 not out overnight in his Test against England…
Akash Deep toils all day but still doesn’t take a wicket, let alone one below #4 in the batting line-up. I’m sure he is aware of the record he holds, and is just trying too hard. Or maybe he is proud of his record, and doesn’t mind if his colleagues work through the middle order.
The day contributes 87.4 overs, 377 runs and seven wickets, and we leave the ground scoffing at the weather app.
Monday
The weather app takes full revenge, with no fewer than seven breaks for rain as heavy showers pass overhead with the frequency of a Steve Smith gloves change.
Australia get to 445 (remember that score), mainly thanks to Alex Carey, who continues his recent good form. My expert colleagues are impressed with his ability to bat with the tail, whereupon I produce a table of selected wicketkeepers and the average number of partnerships they construct per innings. As always when I produce stats supporting their theses, they feel vindicated:
Ravindra Jadeja concedes, for him, the most runs in an innings in which he has failed to take a wicket, knocking off his 0-80 at Trent Bridge in 2014. This is out of character for him: Even taking this innings into account, his bowling average against Australia (20.36) is the third-lowest of the eight countries he has bowled against.
Akash Deep (no doubt much to his disappointment) takes the final wicket of Australia’s innings: #7 batter Alex Carey. He is now removed from the head of the list of bowlers with most wickets without taking any below #4, which honour will now fall to England’s Fred Barratt and India’s Tinu Yohannan, each with five top-four wickets but no others. Neither, by the way, are likely to build on this.
Only 91 runs off 33 overs today, but the game moves along at some pace as seven wickets fall, including four of India’s top five.
At Hamilton in the North Island, by the way, Kane Williamson, continues to shackle himself to Steve Smith by advancing to 33 career centuries, only a day after Smith reached that landmark. Thirteen players have 33 (or more) centuries, and Williamson (105) has done it in the fewest Tests of all, although Ponting and Tendulkar have slightly fewer innings. Smith (112 Tests) lies fifth in matches, and equal fifth (with Sangakkara) in innings.
Tuesday
Thanks to Rahul and then Jadeja, India move more surely towards their aim of avoiding the follow-on (246 runs), after it seemed a certainty that Australia would be able to enforce it. Jadeja’s 77 gives him an average of 30.81 against Australia; a quick check reveals that, against Australia, he is the only player to score 500 runs at an average in excess of 30, and also to take 50 wickets at an average less than 21. A remarkable but understated player.
Even so, when the last pair of Bumrah and Deep comes together, 33 runs are still needed. With Hazlewood limping off after just one over earlier in the day, Cummins and Starc are unable to bounce the tailenders out, and a listless Lyon causes them no alarms. They get past 246, and end the day undefeated with a new record 10th-wicket partnership of 39 for India at the ’Gabba, heading off Prabhakar and Srinath’s 33 in 1991.
Australia are probably thankful that the follow-on is averted: Last time they scored 445 and made India bat again, India ended winning easily, as the populace of Kolkata continue to attest.
57.5 overs today, for 201 runs and five wickets. We are already 175 overs down for the match to this point, which will make any result other than a draw difficult to obtain.
Wednesday
Bumrah and Deep take their last-wicket partnership to 47 before Deep is stumped off Head. Their stand is second only to Garner and Croft, who made 56 in 1979, for visiting teams at the ’Gabba.
Head is the first Australian to secure a stumping in Australia by anyone other than Nathan Lyon since David Warner, by some incredible subterfuge, managed to lure Hashan Amla out of his crease at Adelaide in 2012. (Why Warner was bowling at 1/169 in South Africa’s first innings on that day is a mystery to me.)
Australia, allegedly in pursuit of quick runs to set India a target, collapse in spectacular fashion, losing half their side for 33. It is only the tenth time in Australia’s Test history that the aggregate of 19 runs scored by #1, #2, #3, #4 and #6today has been equalled or lowered.
Khawaja hits two crisp fours and is dismissed soon thereafter. This is now his highest innings consisting entirely of boundaries. Today is his 38thbirthday—the fifth time this anniversary has been contained in a Test Match for him. He only averages 27.44 in these birthday matches, so he may want to stand down from the next one. That will be 39, of course, which is getting into outlier territory, but he has stated he wants to do one more Ashes round. (David Warner has really started something by telling the selectors when he is going.) Khawaja has only made 350 runs at 25.00 when aged 37 (Gooch 1484 runs at 82.44 is the standout model here), so he really needs to channel his 35 years, when he made 1066 runs at a Gooch-like 82.00, if he is to survive to 39.
Bumrah, with 53, goes past Kapil Dev for the most wickets taken by an Indian bowler in Australia, this pair being the only one to achieve the 50-wicket target. I note that the reverse (50 wickets in India by Australians) has only been achieved by Lyon (56) and Richie Benaud (52).
Bumrah, with 21 wickets in three Tests with two to go, threatens to create a new high-water mark for wickets taken by an Indian in Australia over a single series. Bishan Bedi (31 in 1977-78) heads this list, which is heavy with quality spinners such at Chandrasekhar, Prasanna and Kumble.
A face-saving declaration at 7-89 prevents further exaltation of Indian bowling figures, but just as India embark upon batting the day out (or even stealing an unlikely win), Pluvius returns and the match is abandoned. The rain claims 234 overs over the course of the five days.
The time-filling conversation before the last rites turns to the constitution of the Australian team, which has enjoyed remarkable stability for a number of years now. I turn to my database collaborator in Hobart, Dr Jim Palfreyman, who uses the power of R Studio to generate a list of average team changes per Test for each country over the last 25 years:
The tension between, on the one hand, the success of a team that changes little, and on the other, the need for constant regeneration in order to avoid a mass-retirement event, leaving the team bereft of experience, is an interesting one. Australia have managed pretty well to this point, but there are signs that multiple changes are in the wind.
So to Boxing Day, with the series still tied at one-all. Australia lead 13-5 in Tests at the two venues still to play (Melbourne and Sydney), but India must feel they’ve dodged a bullet here, and given that Australia haven’t beaten India at either venue since 2011-12, and lost their last two at Melbourne, they must feel confident of clinching the series.
The ’Gabba ABC crew: from left, Damien Peck, Quentin Hull, Darren Lehmann, Glenn McGrath, Alison Mitchell, Ben Cameron, Sunil Gavaskar, Corbin Middlemas, Phil Jaques, Ric Finlay. Plus Zane Bojack’s shoulder.
Ric Finlay serves on the ACS general committee, and as cricket statistician and scorer for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
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